There are fairly frequent cases of moose spottings in the Crested Butte area, especially in the summer. They tend to like places that have wetlands, ponds or lakes, and especially willows. I have been trying to spot one for years, to no avail. The Cottonwood Pass area is probably the best local option for viewing moose, and I am always hearing reports of numbers of moose up there.

To fulfill my desire to finally see a moose, I headed up to Walden, CO. It is located near the norther border of the state with Wyoming, and there are roughly 600 moose or so that frequent the area. For large creatures, they are not that easy to find. However, I was fortunate enough to finally see 2 bull moose, in separate locations up near Walden. They are magnificent to see walking around, eating a herbivore diet, without much of a care since they have few predators. It was well worth the trip and I hope to see more moose in the Crested Butte area. 

​VRBO rentals are helping to define our real estate market. We are seeing very strong demand for houses in town that can be short term rented (see blog below) and there is some discussion about how this is changing the landscape for real estate ownership. Certainly more homes have been sold to second homeowners, and they short term rent them sometimes for income. But then again, long term locals also short term rent their homes, mostly in the summer, for additional income. It's a win-win situation, as locals can afford their mortgages, more tourists get to experience Crested Butte, and the town profits from the taxes it collects on those rentals. The "controversy" emanates from people abusing the situation: not paying those taxes or short term renting a deed restricted property (deed restricted to long term rentals.) If town is going to discuss changing the situation, they primarily need to enforce those existing rules before they start initiating more rules. 
Here is an article from the Denver Post about the issue: Denver post

The Crested Butte real estate market is doing well in early 2015. The chart to the left shows the overall sales volume from Almont north through 2014, and we are steadily rising, hoping to get back to 2007 levels in the near future. One of the big differences between our current sales and those in the past few years is the lack of listings we are experiencing now. Of the 22 single family homes currently listed in the town of CB, 5 are under contract, with more offers being written continually. CB South has only 5 single family homes listed - the fewest we have seen in decades. There is more building going on with fewer already built options, and I anticipate higher prices for homes will come in the near future. In fact, I hope that our listing pool expands in the spring, and if not, look for higher prices this summer. 

Summer in Crested Butte means wildflowers galore, and this year is no exception. Though we had a late start due to a lovely phenomenon called great snow conditions, the wildflowers were a bit late, but are certainly making up for their delay. Trails close to town, or even on the way to town over Kebler and Highway 135, are in full bloom with the sunflowers, flax, penstemon and scarlet gilia all forming multiple meadows of color and beauty. 

If you are lucky enough to be here during the summer, get out on some trails and experience a great wildflower summer. Our little town is bustling due to a great surge of visitors this year, more from Denver and Boulder than I can ever remember. Make sure to come back in the winter to ski, as our mountain is a great one that has a plethora of exciting runs, and unlike many other resorts, we don't have lift lines that you will even notice!

Mt. Emmons (or Red Lady) is the bowl just outside of Crested Butte that has long been a center of controversy, due to the strong belief that there are large deposits of Molybdenum within its confines. There is good news for townspeople seeking to keep a potential mine at bay. The price of molybdenum has plummeted and oversupply is seen for the next five years. After trading at $30 in 2007, the spot rate is currently around $9.50 with overproduction seen to exist through at least 2017. Thompson Creek owns the mining rights to Red Lady, and they have actually been halting mining activities at some of their other mines that are less controversial and have already been in production.

So, for now, it seems like any talk about mining Red Lady is just hot air or Thompson Creek positioning itself for a deep pocketed partner. They are still responsible for paying for the water treatment facility, which runs about $1,8 million/year, and that can't be seen as a great investment by its shareholders, though it's of the utmost importance to our town's drinking water. Maybe a deal could be worked out to buy or trade their mining rights (like the swap proposed last year) and make the threat of a mine a thing of the past. 

1st quarter stats. 
The statistics are out for Crested Butte's first quarter real estate sales. The numbers verify the prevalent feeling that the real estate market is picking up. Comparing the 1st quarter 2013 to 2010-12, we have almost doubled the sales volume of 2010 and 2011. Looking at condos, single family home and vacant land sales from Almont north, the 2013 volume is $27,754,661, compared to 2010's $15,423,000. This shows a nice bounce off of the lows, and a 10.7% increase from 2012's numbers. We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of new construction in the valley, and are gearing up for a busy summer season. The listing numbers continue to slide, and we are actively seeking new listings to satisfy the current demand. Fortunately for buyers, prices have not yet risen in a meaningful way, in fact, price per square foot remains flat. 
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New numbers out Monday only add to that "bubble" hypothesis. The nation's top ten and top twenty market composites on the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index recorded their highest annual growth rates since May 2006—up 8.6 percent and 9.3 percent respectively. "It is a solid rebound," said S&P's David Blitzer in an interview on CNBC. "I would not call it a bubble, but I'll admit a bubble is one thing you don't see when you're in it. You only see it after it occurs."

Looking back on the index, the biggest home price jumps were in 2004 and 2005, when values were up as high as 16 percent annually. Those prices were fueled by cheap and easy credit, which certainly does not exist today. They were also fueled by speculators who bought and flipped homes at a fast clip, putting no skin of their own in the game.

The concerns today are in certain local markets where gains in home prices look meteoric. In Phoenix, home prices rose 23 percent from a year ago, on the S&P/Case-Shiller index, but you have to put that in perspective. From the peak of the housing boom to the trough in August of 2011, home prices there fell a whopping 56 percent. They are still down over 40 percent from that peak, despite double-digit percentage gains.

On the other hand, some markets are nearly back to their housing boom peaks, only because they didn't boom all that much back then. Dallas home prices fell 9 percent peak-to-trough and are now just 2 percent below their peak in April of 2007. Does that make Dallas a bubble market and not Phoenix?

It all depends, again, on what is driving the gains. Dallas, and much of Texas for that matter, is seeing strong employment growth and an influx of companies and workers to the state. Phoenix is seeing a better employment picture, but the gains in home prices can be attributed largely to investors who came in and bought up an enormous supply of distressed properties. Phoenix was foreclosure-central due to heavy overbuilding during the housing boom.

The difference this time around is that the investors are not flipping homes, they are holding them to rent. They are also using mostly cash, and therefore they have all their skin in the game.(CNBC online: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100689627)

​The housing market is seeing signs that not only have we achieved a bottom, but that we are rebounding and that should continue. According to the National Association of Realtors, year over year existing home sales nationally are up 9.2% from 2011 to 2012. Housing prices are up 6.3% and inventory levels are at the lowest levels they have been since May 2005. What does that mean for Crested Butte real estate? Our 2012 sales were marginally below 2011, but well above the trough years of 2008-2010. Since we are a second home market, typically we see sales rebound in primary markets before we see the follow through here. However, inventory levels here are at low levels not seen since September 2006, so there are good indications that if and when traffic picks up here, prices will follow. 

Given that we are having a relatively light snow year, and the airline flights into Gunnison are woefully light, we probably won't experience the full effects of the rebound until this summer when the crowds always come. Being a former bond trader, I must note that the yield on the benchmark 10 year note has risen from a low of 1.4% to today's 2.02% after today's auction. This indicates to me that although the Fed is still in easing mode, the market is telling you that rates will soon rise nonetheless. The effect on housing is that mortgage rates will rise in the medium term, and people should consider refinancing or making purchases soon if they wish to lock in these low rates. 

Now that the fiscal cliff crisis has been averted temporarily, it might be time to revisit investment strategies. There was a great deal of fear due to the unknown details of what a deal might entail, and the result has been better for real estate than most people thought. Two details that could have potentially wracked the real estate market were the capital gains tax and the mortgage interest deduction disappearing. The fiscal cliff bill passed yesterday includes no changes in the mortgage interest deduction, and the capital gains tax only increased from 15% to 20%; many feared the rate would go even higher. 

People have been on the sidelines for investment properties due to uncertainty. First as to the presidential election, then the fiscal cliff and potential tax changes. We are finally at a point where these uncertainties have been assuaged and it may be time for people to dip their toes back in the market. The stock market is experiencing a relief rally today. The next few months should portend a similar comeback for real estate, now that FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) has dissipated. ​

​As the economy is slowly improving, we are seeing our sales number tick up in Crested Butte real estate. It's kind of the perfect storm for buyers, with low prices, low interest rates and disinterest in investing in other asset classes such as stocks, bonds and precious metals. But I've said this before. What is rather interesting is the people we are seeing who are putting their cash to work in our local real estate market. 

Chad Pike is the Senior Managing Director and Vice Chairman of Blackstone Europe involved in Blackstone's global real estate investments. In today's Wall Street Journal, it mentioned that Blackstone is acquiring another multi-billion dollar company as "the private-equity firm continues to invest aggressively in real estate." Not only is his firm investing aggressively in global real estate, but Mr. Pike himself has bought 4 properties in the town of Crested Butte recently, 3 of which were priced over $1 million. He is spending multi-millions of dollars in renovating these properties as well. 

Another shrewd local investor is Mark Walter, the financier/billionaire who is leading the investment group buying the LA Dodgers. He recently bought a $4 million house in Mt Crested Butte as well as a commercial property in the center of the town of Crested Butte, He was recently featured in this article in the LA Times: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/21/business/la-fi-mark-walter-20120422, He is also rumored to be buying a second commercial building in the heart of downtown Crested Butte. 

So, not only are superlatively wealthy people finding themselves attracted to Crested Butte, but they are also investing heavily in our local real estate market. They clearly see the opportunity here at present and are putting their money to work. I believe that this trend will continue to grow as people seek alternative options in Colorado from Vail, Aspen and Telluride. Clearly we are a different community from those better known towns, but our relative values in the real estate market combined with our casual and friendly lifestyle are highly attractive to those in the know.