The housing market is seeing signs that not only have we achieved a bottom, but that we are rebounding and that should continue. According to the National Association of Realtors, year over year existing home sales nationally are up 9.2% from 2011 to 2012. Housing prices are up 6.3% and inventory levels are at the lowest levels they have been since May 2005. What does that mean for Crested Butte real estate? Our 2012 sales were marginally below 2011, but well above the trough years of 2008-2010. Since we are a second home market, typically we see sales rebound in primary markets before we see the follow through here. However, inventory levels here are at low levels not seen since September 2006, so there are good indications that if and when traffic picks up here, prices will follow.
Given that we are having a relatively light snow year, and the airline flights into Gunnison are woefully light, we probably won't experience the full effects of the rebound until this summer when the crowds always come. Being a former bond trader, I must note that the yield on the benchmark 10 year note has risen from a low of 1.4% to today's 2.02% after today's auction. This indicates to me that although the Fed is still in easing mode, the market is telling you that rates will soon rise nonetheless. The effect on housing is that mortgage rates will rise in the medium term, and people should consider refinancing or making purchases soon if they wish to lock in these low rates.
Given that we are having a relatively light snow year, and the airline flights into Gunnison are woefully light, we probably won't experience the full effects of the rebound until this summer when the crowds always come. Being a former bond trader, I must note that the yield on the benchmark 10 year note has risen from a low of 1.4% to today's 2.02% after today's auction. This indicates to me that although the Fed is still in easing mode, the market is telling you that rates will soon rise nonetheless. The effect on housing is that mortgage rates will rise in the medium term, and people should consider refinancing or making purchases soon if they wish to lock in these low rates.
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